tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 08:50, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Dulles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1742 United Flight history → SMF 08:09 IAD 16:15 10% 2% 0.6% 96%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 18:47 → LAX 20:39UA 5628 · flown by SkyWest 2h 44m Los Angeles LAX 23:23 → IAD 07:17 +1UA 418 9h 30m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 58m Denver DEN 10:20 → IAD 15:53UA 2087 7h 53m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → SMF 08:50 → DEN 12:16UA 2285 1h 37m Denver DEN 13:53 → IAD 19:22UA 347 7h 32m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → SMF 07:00 → ATL 14:35DL 741 3h 56m Atlanta ATL 18:31 → IAD 20:23DL 1309 10h 23m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → SMF 10:14 → LAX 12:06UA 6021 · flown by SkyWest 2h 54m Los Angeles LAX 15:00 → IAD 22:52UA 444 9h 38m 94% 80%
UnitedDetails → SMF 07:00 → ORD 13:10UA 2370 1h 41m Chicago ORD 14:51 → IAD 17:49UA 587 7h 49m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → SMF 07:40 → LAX 09:14UA 5390 · flown by SkyWest 1h 25m Los Angeles LAX 10:39 → IAD 18:48UA 2667 8h 08m 93% 79%
DeltaDetails → SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367 1h 18m Salt Lake City SLC 13:45 → IAD 19:44DL 847 6h 59m 93% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SMF 14:04 → SFO 15:27UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest 1h 07m San Francisco SFO 16:34 → IAD 00:55 +1UA 1453 7h 51m 71% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON