Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via Phoenix, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 68% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 2863 United Flight history →	SMF 05:15	IAH 11:01	6%	2%	0.6%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SMF 07:40 → LAX 09:14UA 5390 · flown by SkyWest	3h 53m Los Angeles	LAX 13:07 → IAH 18:36UA 1084	8h 56m	99%	85%
United Details →	SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889	1h 47m Denver	DEN 10:09 → IAH 13:45UA 2030	6h 45m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526	1h 22m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:34 → IAH 13:38DL 1532	6h 08m	96%	82%
United Details →	SMF 08:50 → DEN 12:16UA 2285	3h 19m Denver	DEN 15:35 → IAH 19:10UA 489	8h 20m	99%	81%
United Details →	SMF 10:14 → LAX 12:06UA 6021 · flown by SkyWest	3h 11m Los Angeles	LAX 15:17 → IAH 20:46UA 2765	8h 32m	94%	80%
United Details →	SMF 08:09 → IAD 16:15UA 1742	1h 44m Dulles	IAD 17:59 → IAH 20:25UA 2217	10h 16m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	SMF 06:00 → LAX 07:40DL 3969 · flown by SkyWest	1h 25m Los Angeles	LAX 09:05 → IAH 14:32DL 1143	6h 32m	92%	78%
Delta Details →	SMF 12:21 → ATL 20:05DL 904	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601	9h 36m	99%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SMF 11:46 → DFW 17:08AA 2081	53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:01 → IAH 19:19AA 1386	5h 33m	66%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON