Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 162 JetBlue Flight history →	SMF 23:40	JFK 08:02	31%	8%	1.1%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SMF 11:34 → SEA 13:45DL 3881 · flown by SkyWest	2h 30m Seattle	SEA 16:15 → JFK 00:22 +1DL 1044	9h 48m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	SMF 11:27 → LAX 13:06DL 3755 · flown by SkyWest	2h 04m Los Angeles	LAX 15:10 → JFK 23:40DL 991	9h 13m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229	1h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661	7h 45m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	SMF 17:20 → SEA 19:25DL 4153 · flown by SkyWest	3h 15m Seattle	SEA 22:40 → JFK 06:50 +1DL 452	10h 30m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526	1h 47m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792	8h 17m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	SMF 07:00 → ATL 14:35DL 741	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 17:36 → JFK 20:03DL 2398	10h 03m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	SMF 06:00 → LAX 07:40DL 3969 · flown by SkyWest	3h 50m Los Angeles	LAX 11:30 → JFK 20:10DL 939	11h 10m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	SMF 12:21 → ATL 20:05DL 904	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 22:33 → JFK 00:46 +1DL 1632	9h 25m	98%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SMF 12:59 → PHX 15:00AA 1677	51m Phoenix	PHX 15:51 → JFK 23:58AA 832	7h 59m	61%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON