tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via LAX, leaving 14:12, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Kailua/Kona on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 380 Southwest SMF 09:36 KOA 12:09 9% 2% 0.5% no record
AS 842 Alaska SMF 10:08 KOA 12:41 16% 3% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SMF 11:27 → LAX 13:06DL 3755 · flown by SkyWest 3h 38m Los Angeles LAX 16:44 → KOA 19:17DL 311 10h 50m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 3h 53m Denver DEN 12:15 → KOA 15:37UA 1758 13h 37m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → SMF 14:05 → SFO 15:27UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest 3h 20m San Francisco SFO 18:47 → KOA 21:19UA 1723 10h 14m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867 2h 45m Phoenix PHX 10:40 → KOA 14:06AA 663 11h 06m 99% 77%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 08:30 → OGG 10:56AS 959 3h 07m Kahului OGG 14:03 → KOA 14:39AS 1140 9h 09m 98% 77%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 08:25 → HNL 10:54AS 819 2h 34m Honolulu HNL 13:28 → KOA 14:26AS 1128 9h 01m 96% 73%
DeltaDetails → SMF 11:06 → SEA 13:06DL 3881 · flown by SkyWest 1h 24m Seattle SEA 14:30 → KOA 17:35DL 340 9h 29m 92% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON