Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3919 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 3919 SMF 06:06 → LAS 07:35 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2070 SMF 18:11 → LAS 19:54 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3919 Southwest	SMF 06:06	LAS 07:35	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1389 Southwest	SMF 07:36	LAS 09:24	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 3230 Southwest	SMF 10:16	LAS 11:54	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 5003 Southwest	SMF 11:36	LAS 13:19	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 3928 Southwest	SMF 12:41	LAS 14:19	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 3931 Southwest	SMF 20:09	LAS 21:36	20%	9%	0.9%	no record
WN 3252 Southwest	SMF 15:27	LAS 16:57	24%	8%	0.9%	no record
WN 1424 Southwest	SMF 16:31	LAS 18:09	27%	12%	1.7%	no record
F9 2070 Frontier Flight history →	SMF 18:11	LAS 19:54	30%	16%	2.8%	84%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON