Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 3969 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 3969 SMF 06:00 → LAX 07:40 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 2472 SMF 19:19 → LAX 20:50 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3969 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 06:00	LAX 07:40	8%	4%	0.5%	96%
WN 4441 Southwest	SMF 09:16	LAX 10:57	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 6021 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 10:14	LAX 12:06	12%	5%	0.5%	94%
DL 3755 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 11:27	LAX 13:06	12%	5%	0.5%	94%
UA 5628 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 18:47	LAX 20:39	12%	6%	0.5%	99%worse than usual
AA 6265 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 07:00	LAX 08:41	12%	4%	0.5%	90%
OO 5259 SkyWest	SMF 16:07	LAX 17:59	13%	5%	0.5%	no record
DL 3812 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 14:11	LAX 15:49	13%	5%	0.5%	91%
OO 6279 SkyWest	SMF 11:40	LAX 13:25	14%	5%	0.5%	no record
DL 3712 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 18:55	LAX 20:39	15%	5%	0.5%	89%
WN 3236 Southwest	SMF 14:01	LAX 15:37	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 3700 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 09:13	LAX 10:48	17%	5%	0.5%	84%
UA 5390 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 07:40	LAX 09:14	17%	5%	0.5%	84%
OO 6278 SkyWest	SMF 18:28	LAX 20:04	17%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 2472 Southwest	SMF 19:19	LAX 20:50	20%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON