Saturday, October 10 · our forecast odds · issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Lihue on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Lihue is 3 h behind Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889	3h 38m Denver	DEN 12:00 → LIH 15:37UA 2307	13h 37m	100%	80%
Alaska Details →	SMF 08:30 → OGG 10:56AS 959	3h 28m Kahului	OGG 14:24 → LIH 15:13AS 1159	9h 43m	99%	70%
Alaska Details →	SMF 08:25 → HNL 10:54AS 819	3h 44m Honolulu	HNL 14:38 → LIH 15:28AS 1103	10h 03m	99%	70%
American Details →	SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867	3h 17m Phoenix	PHX 11:12 → LIH 15:12AA 697	12h 12m	99%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON