tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 16:19, is the safest bet: 64% chance of reaching Kansas City on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1615 Southwest SMF 09:26 MCI 14:50 8% 2% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 28m Denver DEN 09:50 → MCI 12:38UA 2159 5h 38m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 3h 41m Minneapolis MSP 15:19 → MCI 16:55DL 1774 8h 40m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526 2h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 10:34 → MCI 13:57DL 2882 6h 27m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → SMF 08:09 → IAD 16:15UA 1742 1h 48m Dulles IAD 18:03 → MCI 19:51UA 1165 9h 42m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:15 → IAH 11:01UA 2863 1h 04m Houston IAH 12:05 → MCI 14:15UA 6152 · flown by Mesa 7h 00m 96% 82%
AmericanDetails → SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867 1h 55m Phoenix PHX 09:50 → MCI 14:47AA 1622 6h 47m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → SMF 09:13 → LAX 10:48DL 3700 · flown by SkyWest 3h 07m Los Angeles LAX 13:55 → MCI 19:12DL 2243 7h 59m 98% 80%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 08:13 → PDX 09:47AS 2095 · flown by Horizon 2h 16m Portland PDX 12:03 → MCI 17:23AS 225 7h 10m 97% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON