Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via DFW, leaving 14:16, is the safest bet: 43% chance of reaching Orlando on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3943 Southwest	SMF 22:24	MCO 06:29	14%	3%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SMF 11:27 → LAX 13:06DL 3755 · flown by SkyWest	2h 59m Los Angeles	LAX 16:05 → MCO 00:07 +1DL 718	9h 40m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	SMF 17:20 → SEA 19:25DL 4153 · flown by SkyWest	3h 50m Seattle	SEA 23:15 → MCO 07:40 +1DL 448	11h 20m	97%	81%
United Details →	SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889	1h 48m Denver	DEN 10:10 → MCO 16:04UA 2354	8h 04m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229	1h 07m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → MCO 17:04DL 2225	7h 49m	95%	79%
United Details →	SMF 05:15 → IAH 11:01UA 2863	3h 35m Houston	IAH 14:36 → MCO 18:14UA 496	9h 59m	100%	78%
United Details →	SMF 08:50 → DEN 12:16UA 2285	1h 32m Denver	DEN 13:48 → MCO 19:39UA 501	7h 49m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526	1h 23m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:35 → MCO 16:13DL 2032	7h 43m	96%	75%
United Details →	SMF 13:00 → DEN 16:26UA 1961	1h 26m Denver	DEN 17:52 → MCO 23:41UA 259	7h 41m	92%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON