Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2229 Delta Flight history →	SMF 06:15	MSP 11:38	6%	2%	0.4%	92%
DL 1788 Delta	SMF 13:29	MSP 19:02	10%	3%	0.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889	1h 18m Denver	DEN 09:40 → MSP 12:40UA 397	5h 40m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526	2h 58m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924	7h 10m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	SMF 11:27 → LAX 13:06DL 3755 · flown by SkyWest	2h 16m Los Angeles	LAX 15:22 → MSP 20:59DL 2198	7h 32m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	SMF 07:53 → SEA 10:05DL 4075 · flown by SkyWest	3h 45m Seattle	SEA 13:50 → MSP 19:06DL 536	9h 13m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SMF 12:21 → ATL 20:05DL 904	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310	10h 18m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	SMF 06:00 → LAX 07:40DL 3969 · flown by SkyWest	3h 35m Los Angeles	LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413	8h 50m	100%	85%
United Details →	SMF 08:50 → DEN 12:16UA 2285	1h 34m Denver	DEN 13:50 → MSP 16:54UA 732	6h 04m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	SMF 07:00 → ATL 14:35DL 741	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 17:38 → MSP 19:15DL 2981	10h 15m	98%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON