Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 08:25, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching Kahului on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 959 Alaska Flight history →	SMF 08:30	OGG 10:56	14%	3%	1.0%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889	3h 38m Denver	DEN 12:00 → OGG 15:05UA 1736	13h 05m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	SMF 11:06 → SEA 13:06DL 3881 · flown by SkyWest	1h 53m Seattle	SEA 14:59 → OGG 17:56DL 344	9h 50m	96%	79%
Alaska Details →	SMF 12:08 → PDX 13:51AS 3003 · flown by SkyWest	3h 54m Portland	PDX 17:45 → OGG 20:40AS 353	11h 32m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526	3h 18m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → OGG 14:08DL 623	11h 38m	98%	76%
American Details →	SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867	3h 08m Phoenix	PHX 11:03 → OGG 14:32AA 645	11h 32m	99%	75%
Alaska Details →	SMF 08:25 → HNL 10:54AS 819	3h 55m Honolulu	HNL 14:49 → OGG 15:39AS 1136	10h 14m	99%	72%
Delta Details →	SMF 06:00 → LAX 07:40DL 3969 · flown by SkyWest	50m Los Angeles	LAX 08:30 → OGG 11:07DL 425	8h 07m	83%	69%
American Details →	SMF 06:28 → LAX 08:13AA 6265 · flown by SkyWest	51m Los Angeles	LAX 09:04 → OGG 11:44AA 271	8h 16m	79%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SMF 14:05 → SFO 15:27UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest	1h 13m San Francisco	SFO 16:40 → OGG 19:17UA 1749	8h 12m	72%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON