Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 12–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2304 SMF 12:56 → PDX 14:46 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 675 SMF 15:18 → PDX 16:40 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 2304 Southwest	SMF 12:56	PDX 14:46	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
AS 3003 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 12:07	PDX 13:51	13%	5%	0.6%	85%
AS 1654 Alaska	SMF 08:13	PDX 09:50	15%	2%	0.8%	no record
AS 720 Alaska	SMF 18:14	PDX 19:51	20%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 3957 Southwest	SMF 18:59	PDX 20:39	20%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 675 Alaska	SMF 15:18	PDX 16:40	20%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 2095 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SMF 08:13	PDX 09:47	9%	4%	1.5%	91%
AS 2335 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SMF 19:17	PDX 20:50	33%	10%	1.9%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON