Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3959 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 3959 SMF 05:15 → PHX 07:14 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1677 SMF 12:59 → PHX 15:00 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3959 Southwest	SMF 05:15	PHX 07:14	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 3272 Southwest	SMF 08:26	PHX 10:28	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 1867 American Flight history →	SMF 06:00	PHX 07:55	10%	3%	0.8%	93%
WN 3961 Southwest	SMF 15:36	PHX 17:38	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
MQ 4070 Envoy	SMF 16:27	PHX 18:29	16%	4%	0.8%	no record
OO 4913 SkyWest	SMF 09:56	PHX 12:06	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 4461 Southwest	SMF 13:36	PHX 15:38	17%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4371 Southwest	SMF 18:49	PHX 20:48	19%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 1677 American Flight history →	SMF 12:59	PHX 15:00	24%	6%	0.7%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON