Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1104 at 09:16, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1104 Southwest	SMF 09:16	PSP 11:00	9%	3%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Palm Springs on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526	2h 33m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → PSP 11:41DL 4042 · flown by SkyWest	6h 11m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367	3h 18m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:45 → PSP 16:38DL 3852 · flown by SkyWest	6h 53m	98%	90%
United Details →	SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889	2h 56m Denver	DEN 11:18 → PSP 12:38UA 687	7h 38m	99%	83%
Alaska Details →	SMF 12:07 → PDX 13:51AS 3003 · flown by SkyWest	3h 45m Portland	PDX 17:36 → PSP 20:14AS 3022 · flown by SkyWest	8h 07m	100%	81%
American Details →	SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867	2h 41m Phoenix	PHX 10:36 → PSP 11:58AA 1884	5h 58m	98%	76%
United Details →	SMF 13:00 → DEN 16:26UA 1961	2h 48m Denver	DEN 19:14 → PSP 20:28UA 2644	7h 28m	96%	72%
American Details →	SMF 12:59 → PHX 15:00AA 1677	2h 16m Phoenix	PHX 17:16 → PSP 18:33AA 4922 · flown by SkyWest	5h 34m	92%	71%
Alaska Details →	SMF 11:31 → SEA 13:23AS 1365	1h 02m Seattle	SEA 14:25 → PSP 17:01AS 322	5h 30m	79%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON