Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4373 at 05:56 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 4373 SMF 05:56 → SAN 07:45 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 350 SMF 17:20 → SAN 18:55 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4373 Southwest	SMF 05:56	SAN 07:45	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 4374 Southwest	SMF 07:41	SAN 09:40	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3801 Southwest	SMF 09:16	SAN 11:05	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 490 Alaska	SMF 06:58	SAN 08:36	20%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 4768 Southwest	SMF 11:21	SAN 13:10	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 3330 SkyWest	SMF 10:33	SAN 12:17	24%	9%	0.8%	no record
AS 3410 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 19:55	SAN 21:39	27%	9%	1.1%	67%
QX 2208 Horizon	SMF 08:16	SAN 09:57	27%	4%	1.1%	no record
WN 3967 Southwest	SMF 13:41	SAN 15:30	27%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 3970 Southwest	SMF 17:46	SAN 19:40	30%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 1603 Southwest	SMF 15:31	SAN 17:20	30%	7%	0.6%	no record
AS 350 Alaska	SMF 17:20	SAN 18:55	31%	7%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON