Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1320 at 09:26, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1320 Southwest	SMF 09:26	SBA 10:55	7%	2%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526	2h 38m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:50 → SBA 11:59DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest	6h 29m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367	2h 33m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:00 → SBA 16:03DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest	6h 18m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	SMF 17:00 → SLC 19:41DL 1342	1h 24m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:05 → SBA 22:05DL 3803 · flown by SkyWest	5h 05m	92%	85%
American Details →	SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867	2h 08m Phoenix	PHX 10:03 → SBA 11:56AA 2928	5h 56m	98%	82%
Alaska Details →	SMF 08:13 → PDX 09:47AS 2095 · flown by Horizon	1h 00m Portland	PDX 10:47 → SBA 13:05AS 2317 · flown by Horizon	4h 52m	91%	82%
American Details →	SMF 12:59 → PHX 15:00AA 1677	2h 17m Phoenix	PHX 17:17 → SBA 19:08AA 1855	6h 09m	93%	74%
Alaska Details →	SMF 11:31 → SEA 13:23AS 1365	2h 05m Seattle	SEA 15:28 → SBA 17:53AS 468	6h 22m	98%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SMF 14:04 → SFO 15:27UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest	50m San Francisco	SFO 16:17 → SBA 17:37UA 639	3h 33m	68%	50%
Alaska Details →	SMF 19:55 → SAN 21:39AS 3410 · flown by SkyWest	53m San Diego	SAN 22:32 → SBA 23:44AS 2175 · flown by Horizon	3h 49m	65%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON