Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 297 at 06:31 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 297 SMF 06:31 → SEA 08:36 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 323 SMF 18:24 → SEA 20:19 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 297 Southwest	SMF 06:31	SEA 08:36	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3491 Southwest	SMF 00:14	SEA 02:29	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 4125 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 12:53	SEA 15:00	14%	6%	0.6%	93%
DL 3881 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 11:34	SEA 13:45	15%	5%	0.6%	90%
DL 4075 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 07:53	SEA 10:05	23%	5%	0.6%	89%worse than usual
AS 1365 Alaska Flight history →	SMF 11:31	SEA 13:23	23%	4%	0.7%	86%
AS 763 Alaska	SMF 13:20	SEA 15:11	23%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 4153 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 17:20	SEA 19:25	24%	8%	0.7%	85%
AS 458 Alaska	SMF 08:21	SEA 10:12	36%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 323 Southwest	SMF 18:24	SEA 20:19	37%	11%	0.6%	no record
AS 2402 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SMF 17:14	SEA 19:10	47%	7%	0.0%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON