Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1526 SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 2290 SMF 14:01 → SLC 16:54 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1526 Delta Flight history →	SMF 05:30	SLC 08:12	6%	2%	0.6%	97%
DL 1367 Delta Flight history →	SMF 09:45	SLC 12:27	11%	3%	0.6%	92%
DL 1342 Delta Flight history →	SMF 17:00	SLC 19:41	14%	4%	0.6%	83%
DL 1797 Delta	SMF 13:33	SLC 16:18	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2290 Southwest	SMF 14:01	SLC 16:54	16%	3%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON