Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching St Louis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4133 Southwest	SMF 10:26	STL 16:15	10%	2%	0.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229	3h 36m Minneapolis	MSP 15:14 → STL 16:50DL 1224	8h 35m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526	1h 28m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:40 → STL 13:33DL 2455	6h 03m	96%	86%
United Details →	SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889	1h 13m Denver	DEN 09:35 → STL 12:42UA 652	5h 42m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	SMF 07:00 → ATL 14:35DL 741	1h 17m Atlanta	ATL 15:52 → STL 16:39DL 543	7h 39m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	SMF 12:21 → ATL 20:05DL 904	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 22:39 → STL 23:20DL 1403	8h 59m	98%	79%
United Details →	SMF 08:50 → DEN 12:16UA 2285	1h 09m Denver	DEN 13:25 → STL 16:33UA 1639	5h 43m	95%	78%
American Details →	SMF 06:42 → DFW 12:10AA 1021	2h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:54 → STL 16:49AA 3944 · flown by Envoy	8h 07m	97%	77%
United Details →	SMF 05:15 → IAH 11:01UA 2863	55m Houston	IAH 11:56 → STL 14:17UA 2042	7h 02m	92%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SMF 11:46 → DFW 17:08AA 2081	54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:02 → STL 19:53AA 2761	6h 07m	66%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON