Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 3985 at 08:08, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3985 Southwest	SNA 08:08	AUS 13:09	6%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:09UA 489	1h 35m Denver	DEN 13:44 → AUS 16:58UA 2270	6h 13m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	SNA 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1185	2h 58m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:11 → AUS 17:03DL 2689	7h 48m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 17:20 → AUS 18:50DL 1491	10h 05m	97%	78%
Alaska Details →	SNA 07:00 → PDX 09:24AS 750	1h 06m Portland	PDX 10:30 → AUS 16:38AS 540	7h 38m	94%	76%
United Details →	SNA 12:00 → IAH 17:30UA 2044	2h 48m Houston	IAH 20:18 → AUS 21:25UA 2621	7h 25m	98%	75%
United Details →	SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07UA 700	1h 13m Houston	IAH 14:20 → AUS 15:29UA 6118 · flown by Mesa	5h 44m	95%	75%
United Details →	SNA 14:53 → IAH 20:15UA 643	1h 31m Houston	IAH 21:46 → AUS 22:44UA 1179	5h 51m	92%	70%
Alaska Details →	SNA 06:47 → SEA 09:42AS 1325	2h 01m Seattle	SEA 11:43 → AUS 17:42AS 502	8h 55m	99%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SNA 08:05 → SEA 10:55AS 702	48m Seattle	SEA 11:43 → AUS 17:42AS 502	7h 37m	49%	34%
Alaska Details →	SNA 14:45 → SEA 17:32AS 760	47m Seattle	SEA 18:19 → AUS 00:31 +1AS 372	7h 46m	40%	28%
American Details →	SNA 14:30 → DFW 19:47AA 2465	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:33 → AUS 21:37AA 2707	5h 07m	44%	25%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON