tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:45, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Baltimore on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 3h 31m Atlanta ATL 17:50 → BWI 19:45DL 2928 10h 00m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:09UA 489 2h 00m Denver DEN 14:09 → BWI 19:30UA 363 7h 45m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → ORD 13:09UA 587 1h 35m Chicago ORD 14:44 → BWI 17:48UA 2737 8h 03m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:37 → ORD 16:53UA 2426 3h 10m Chicago ORD 20:03 → BWI 23:06UA 220 9h 29m 96% 70%
UnitedDetails → SNA 12:00 → IAH 17:30UA 2044 57m Houston IAH 18:27 → BWI 22:41UA 1830 7h 41m 84% 68%
AmericanDetails → SNA 07:16 → CLT 15:15AA 2177 2h 52m Charlotte CLT 18:07 → BWI 19:42AA 2855 9h 26m 99% 63%
AmericanDetails → SNA 09:13 → DFW 14:24AA 1686 2h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:20 → BWI 21:38AA 2251 9h 25m 93% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON