Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via Phoenix, leaving 06:46, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Charlotte on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 2177 American Flight history →	SNA 07:16	CLT 15:15	17%	4%	0.8%	92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	SNA 06:46 → PHX 08:16AA 628	1h 39m Phoenix	PHX 09:55 → CLT 17:10AA 665	7h 24m	95%	74%
Delta Details →	SNA 12:15 → ATL 19:49DL 1521	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177	8h 43m	91%	74%
Delta Details →	SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 17:05 → CLT 18:24DL 3158	8h 39m	96%	72%
American Details →	SNA 11:35 → ORD 17:52AA 2285	3h 02m Chicago	ORD 20:54 → CLT 23:59AA 2976	9h 24m	95%	68%
United Details →	SNA 06:45 → EWR 15:21UA 661	3h 56m Newark	EWR 19:17 → CLT 21:20UA 1168	11h 35m	100%	63%
American Details →	SNA 06:46 → DFW 12:02AA 1382	3h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:01 → CLT 19:42AA 2013	9h 56m	100%	63%
American Details →	SNA 09:13 → DFW 14:24AA 1686	3h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:05 → CLT 21:55AA 1703	9h 42m	95%	60%
American Details →	SNA 07:45 → ORD 14:08AA 2590	2h 40m Chicago	ORD 16:48 → CLT 19:43AA 3188	8h 58m	96%	60%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SNA 11:35 → ORD 17:52AA 2285	56m Chicago	ORD 18:48 → CLT 22:00AA 689	7h 25m	70%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON