tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Bush, leaving 07:45, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Washington on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07UA 700 3h 35m Houston IAH 16:42 → DCA 20:57UA 235 10h 12m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → SNA 08:00 → MSP 13:39DL 2185 58m Minneapolis MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963 7h 09m 89% 79%
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 3h 36m Atlanta ATL 17:55 → DCA 19:48DL 832 10h 03m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → SNA 12:15 → ATL 19:49DL 1521 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537 8h 37m 91% 74%
AmericanDetails → SNA 07:45 → ORD 14:08AA 2590 2h 54m Chicago ORD 17:02 → DCA 20:16AA 489 9h 31m 97% 74%
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:37 → ORD 16:53UA 2426 2h 52m Chicago ORD 19:45 → DCA 22:54UA 2160 9h 17m 94% 73%
AmericanDetails → SNA 06:46 → DFW 12:02AA 1382 2h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:54 → DCA 19:11AA 2520 9h 25m 99% 73%
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → ORD 13:09UA 587 3h 49m Chicago ORD 16:58 → DCA 19:57UA 2761 10h 12m 100% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SNA 07:45 → ORD 14:08AA 2590 47m Chicago ORD 14:55 → DCA 17:59AA 2769 7h 14m 72% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON