Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3290 at 06:43 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 3290 SNA 06:43 → DEN 10:23 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3207 SNA 12:53 → DEN 16:23 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3290 Southwest	SNA 06:43	DEN 10:23	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 489 United Flight history →	SNA 08:45	DEN 12:09	8%	3%	0.6%	92%
UA 323 United	SNA 06:56	DEN 10:17	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2843 United Flight history →	SNA 10:20	DEN 13:43	11%	3%	0.6%	99%
UA 2656 United Flight history →	SNA 18:26	DEN 21:47	13%	4%	0.6%	88%
UA 1048 United	SNA 16:09	DEN 19:40	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 680 United	SNA 12:58	DEN 16:33	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
F9 9554 Frontier	SNA 10:01	DEN 13:46	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 1559 United	SNA 13:00	DEN 16:21	18%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 3207 Southwest	SNA 12:53	DEN 16:23	19%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON