Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1382 at 06:46 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 1382 SNA 06:46 → DFW 12:02 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2659 SNA 16:36 → DFW 21:50 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1382 American Flight history →	SNA 06:46	DFW 12:02	8%	4%	1.4%	89%
AA 3170 American	SNA 08:02	DFW 13:17	12%	5%	1.4%	no record
AA 1686 American Flight history →	SNA 09:13	DFW 14:24	17%	5%	1.2%	88%
AA 2114 American Flight history →	SNA 10:36	DFW 15:47	20%	7%	1.7%	78%
AA 1933 American	SNA 13:41	DFW 19:00	30%	11%	2.2%	no record
AA 2465 American Flight history →	SNA 14:30	DFW 19:47	32%	12%	2.1%	79%worse than usual
AA 1939 American	SNA 12:11	DFW 17:09	32%	10%	2.0%	no record
AA 2659 American Flight history →	SNA 16:36	DFW 21:50	33%	18%	5.1%	80%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON