tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Detroit on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SNA 08:00 → MSP 13:39DL 2185 2h 30m Minneapolis MSP 16:09 → DTW 18:54DL 1476 7h 54m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → SNA 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1185 3h 37m Salt Lake City SLC 13:50 → DTW 19:15DL 2244 9h 00m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → SNA 19:59 → LAS 21:17DL 4179 · flown by SkyWest 1h 53m Las Vegas LAS 23:10 → DTW 06:03 +1DL 502 7h 04m 95% 81%
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 17:11 → DTW 19:14DL 2067 9h 29m 97% 80%
AmericanDetails → SNA 06:46 → PHX 08:16AA 628 1h 39m Phoenix PHX 09:55 → DTW 17:01AA 1728 7h 15m 95% 74%
UnitedDetails → SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07UA 700 1h 14m Houston IAH 14:21 → DTW 18:15UA 464 7h 30m 95% 74%
DeltaDetails → SNA 12:15 → ATL 19:49DL 1521 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 22:59 → DTW 00:58 +1DL 2940 9h 43m 91% 73%
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → ORD 13:09UA 587 2h 49m Chicago ORD 15:58 → DTW 18:15UA 2632 8h 30m 99% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SNA 14:10 → ORD 20:26UA 1352 58m Chicago ORD 21:24 → DTW 23:41UA 349 6h 31m 68% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON