tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 08:45, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2186 United Flight history → SNA 21:15 EWR 05:33 6% 3% 1.0% 90%
UA 661 United Flight history → SNA 06:45 EWR 15:21 10% 4% 1.0% 91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SNA 16:12 → SFO 17:48UA 5351 · flown by SkyWest 3h 27m San Francisco SFO 21:15 → EWR 05:51 +1UA 698 10h 39m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → SNA 12:00 → IAH 17:30UA 2044 2h 25m Houston IAH 19:55 → EWR 00:37 +1UA 1444 9h 37m 97% 76%
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:20 → DEN 13:43UA 2843 2h 54m Denver DEN 16:37 → EWR 22:31UA 1559 9h 11m 100% 74%
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:37 → ORD 16:53UA 2426 3h 14m Chicago ORD 20:07 → EWR 23:39UA 759 10h 02m 96% 72%
UnitedDetails → SNA 19:27 → SFO 21:05UA 5339 · flown by SkyWest 1h 30m San Francisco SFO 22:35 → EWR 07:00 +1UA 1141 8h 33m 87% 70%
UnitedDetails → SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:09UA 489 3h 26m Denver DEN 15:35 → EWR 21:29UA 1715 9h 44m 100% 70%
AmericanDetails → SNA 12:34 → PHX 14:06AA 2454 2h 04m Phoenix PHX 16:10 → EWR 23:59AA 1967 8h 25m 97% 68%
UnitedDetails → SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07UA 700 3h 40m Houston IAH 16:47 → EWR 21:29UA 700 10h 44m 99% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON