tailodds FORECAST
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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Bush, leaving 07:45, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Fort Lauderdale on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07UA 700 3h 28m Houston IAH 16:35 → FLL 20:22UA 277 9h 37m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:09UA 489 1h 44m Denver DEN 13:53 → FLL 19:44UA 1384 7h 59m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 16:39 → FLL 18:40DL 1295 8h 55m 96% 69%
DeltaDetails → SNA 12:15 → ATL 19:49DL 1521 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 22:45 → FLL 00:39 +1DL 1229 9h 24m 91% 64%
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → EWR 15:21UA 661 2h 35m Newark EWR 17:56 → FLL 21:05UA 2096 11h 20m 99% 62%
AmericanDetails → SNA 07:45 → ORD 14:08AA 2590 2h 52m Chicago ORD 17:00 → FLL 21:17AA 2881 10h 32m 96% 60%
AmericanDetails → SNA 10:36 → DFW 15:47AA 2114 3h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:01 → FLL 23:07AA 1847 9h 31m 95% 58%
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:37 → ORD 16:53UA 2426 1h 06m Chicago ORD 17:59 → FLL 22:04UA 463 8h 27m 85% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON