Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via DFW, leaving 10:36, is the safest bet: 68% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	SNA 10:36 → DFW 15:47AA 2114	2h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:37 → HOU 19:58AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	7h 22m	95%	68%
Delta Details →	SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721	53m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	7h 37m	82%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SNA 12:15 → ATL 19:49DL 1521	56m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	7h 36m	68%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON