Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 09:50, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Dulles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 688 United	SNA 08:19	IAD 16:17	7%	4%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SNA 16:12 → SFO 17:48UA 5351 · flown by SkyWest	3h 30m San Francisco	SFO 21:18 → IAD 05:15 +1UA 705	10h 03m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	SNA 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1185	3h 32m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:45 → IAD 19:44DL 847	9h 29m	97%	82%
United Details →	SNA 10:20 → DEN 13:43UA 2843	1h 57m Denver	DEN 15:40 → IAD 21:11UA 421	7h 51m	100%	82%
United Details →	SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:09UA 489	1h 44m Denver	DEN 13:53 → IAD 19:22UA 347	7h 37m	97%	82%
United Details →	SNA 06:45 → ORD 13:09UA 587	1h 42m Chicago	ORD 14:51 → IAD 17:49UA 587	8h 04m	99%	80%
United Details →	SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07UA 700	3h 28m Houston	IAH 16:35 → IAD 20:46UA 2388	10h 01m	99%	80%
United Details →	SNA 12:00 → IAH 17:30UA 2044	2h 40m Houston	IAH 20:10 → IAD 00:02 +1UA 1968	9h 02m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721	1h 07m Atlanta	ATL 15:26 → IAD 17:14DL 1695	7h 29m	90%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SNA 07:16 → CLT 15:15AA 2177	51m Charlotte	CLT 16:06 → IAD 17:47AA 5447 · flown by PSA	7h 31m	71%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON