Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via DFW, leaving 06:46, is the safest bet: 65% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 556 Delta Flight history →	SNA 21:00	JFK 05:27	9%	3%	1.8%	89%
AA 2459 American Flight history →	SNA 11:43	JFK 20:21	28%	9%	0.8%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SNA 19:59 → LAS 21:17DL 4179 · flown by SkyWest	2h 17m Las Vegas	LAS 23:34 → JFK 07:12 +1DL 1159	8h 13m	99%	86%
American Details →	SNA 16:26 → PHX 18:01AA 2463	3h 49m Phoenix	PHX 21:50 → JFK 05:47 +1AA 1587	10h 21m	96%	81%
Alaska Details →	SNA 18:03 → SFO 19:39AS 3492 · flown by SkyWest	2h 37m San Francisco	SFO 22:16 → JFK 06:24 +1AS 40	9h 21m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 17:36 → JFK 20:03DL 2398	10h 18m	98%	77%
Alaska Details →	SNA 07:00 → PDX 09:24AS 750	1h 23m Portland	PDX 10:47 → JFK 19:23AS 18	9h 23m	99%	76%
Alaska Details →	SNA 08:08 → SFO 09:44AS 3251 · flown by SkyWest	3h 54m San Francisco	SFO 13:38 → JFK 22:26AS 42	11h 18m	100%	73%
American Details →	SNA 06:46 → PHX 08:16AA 628	1h 40m Phoenix	PHX 09:56 → JFK 18:01AA 2339	8h 15m	96%	72%
Delta Details →	SNA 09:50 → SLC 12:46DL 1198	1h 49m Salt Lake City	SLC 14:35 → JFK 21:25DL 671	8h 35m	95%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SNA 14:00 → ATL 21:38DL 329	55m Atlanta	ATL 22:33 → JFK 00:46 +1DL 1632	7h 46m	70%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON