Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 977 at 07:08 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 977 SNA 07:08 → LAS 08:39 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1755 SNA 14:38 → LAS 16:04 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 977 Southwest	SNA 07:08	LAS 08:39	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 4280 Southwest	SNA 09:48	LAS 11:14	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 4078 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 10:45	LAS 12:04	12%	5%	0.7%	87%
DL 4179 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 19:59	LAS 21:17	13%	8%	1.1%	83%
WN 868 Southwest	SNA 12:53	LAS 14:19	17%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 3851 Southwest	SNA 17:38	LAS 19:04	21%	12%	1.6%	no record
WN 1755 Southwest	SNA 14:38	LAS 16:04	23%	8%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON