tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SNA 08:00 → MSP 13:39DL 2185 1h 36m Minneapolis MSP 15:15 → LGA 19:00DL 2732 8h 00m 95% 82%
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:20 → DEN 13:43UA 2843 3h 37m Denver DEN 17:20 → LGA 23:13UA 2033 9h 53m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:09UA 489 1h 50m Denver DEN 13:59 → LGA 19:53UA 1579 8h 08m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 17:00 → LGA 19:27DL 997 9h 42m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07UA 700 3h 08m Houston IAH 16:15 → LGA 20:59UA 334 10h 14m 99% 75%
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → ORD 13:09UA 587 3h 05m Chicago ORD 16:14 → LGA 19:31UA 511 9h 46m 99% 72%
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:37 → ORD 16:53UA 2426 3h 10m Chicago ORD 20:03 → LGA 23:17UA 2827 9h 40m 96% 71%
AmericanDetails → SNA 11:35 → ORD 17:52AA 2285 2h 18m Chicago ORD 20:10 → LGA 23:35AA 1166 9h 00m 92% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON