tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 08:45, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Orlando on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 45% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:09UA 489 1h 39m Denver DEN 13:48 → MCO 19:39UA 501 7h 54m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07UA 700 1h 29m Houston IAH 14:36 → MCO 18:14UA 496 7h 29m 97% 76%
UnitedDetails → SNA 12:00 → IAH 17:30UA 2044 1h 59m Houston IAH 19:29 → MCO 23:05UA 3883 8h 05m 93% 76%
AlaskaDetails → SNA 14:45 → SEA 17:32AS 760 3h 54m Seattle SEA 21:26 → MCO 05:43 +1AS 390 11h 58m 100% 75%
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 1h 41m Atlanta ATL 16:00 → MCO 17:47DL 1742 8h 02m 95% 71%
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → ORD 13:09UA 587 1h 35m Chicago ORD 14:44 → MCO 18:32UA 2654 8h 47m 98% 71%
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → EWR 15:21UA 661 1h 34m Newark EWR 16:55 → MCO 19:56UA 1900 10h 11m 96% 71%
AmericanDetails → SNA 06:46 → PHX 08:16AA 628 1h 42m Phoenix PHX 09:58 → MCO 17:32AA 603 7h 46m 96% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SNA 11:35 → ORD 17:52AA 2285 53m Chicago ORD 18:45 → MCO 22:40AA 3176 8h 05m 69% 39%
AmericanDetails → SNA 10:36 → DFW 15:47AA 2114 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:33 → MCO 20:25AA 2791 6h 49m 71% 38%
AlaskaDetails → SNA 12:05 → SEA 14:54AS 548 49m Seattle SEA 15:43 → MCO 23:59AS 420 8h 54m 45% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON