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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:03, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Miami on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SNA 17:03 → SLC 19:58DL 1277 3h 02m Salt Lake City SLC 23:00 → MIA 05:40 +1DL 2040 9h 37m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:20 → DEN 13:43UA 2843 2h 20m Denver DEN 16:03 → MIA 22:05UA 445 8h 45m 100% 73%
AmericanDetails → SNA 12:34 → PHX 14:06AA 2454 1h 53m Phoenix PHX 15:59 → MIA 23:38AA 1222 8h 04m 97% 68%
UnitedDetails → SNA 12:00 → IAH 17:30UA 2044 1h 31m Houston IAH 19:01 → MIA 22:40UA 1829 7h 40m 90% 67%
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 17:48 → MIA 19:44DL 719 9h 59m 98% 67%
AmericanDetails → SNA 06:46 → PHX 08:16AA 628 3h 57m Phoenix PHX 12:13 → MIA 19:47AA 404 10h 01m 99% 65%
DeltaDetails → SNA 12:15 → ATL 19:49DL 1521 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589 9h 40m 91% 65%
AmericanDetails → SNA 07:45 → ORD 14:08AA 2590 3h 23m Chicago ORD 17:31 → MIA 21:53AA 3040 11h 08m 97% 59%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SNA 11:43 → JFK 20:21AA 2459 58m New York JFK 21:19 → MIA 00:23 +1AA 1922 9h 40m 71% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON