Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2185 Delta Flight history →	SNA 08:00	MSP 13:39	11%	4%	0.6%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SNA 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1185	3h 47m Salt Lake City	SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936	8h 17m	97%	84%
United Details →	SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:09UA 489	1h 41m Denver	DEN 13:50 → MSP 16:54UA 732	6h 09m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 17:38 → MSP 19:15DL 2981	10h 30m	98%	83%
Alaska Details →	SNA 06:47 → SEA 09:42AS 1325	2h 09m Seattle	SEA 11:51 → MSP 17:19AS 509	8h 32m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	SNA 12:15 → ATL 19:49DL 1521	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310	10h 24m	92%	79%
United Details →	SNA 12:00 → IAH 17:30UA 2044	2h 26m Houston	IAH 19:56 → MSP 23:01UA 8172	9h 01m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	SNA 10:45 → LAS 12:04DL 4078 · flown by SkyWest	1h 27m Las Vegas	LAS 13:31 → MSP 18:42DL 2238	5h 57m	92%	77%
United Details →	SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07UA 700	1h 21m Houston	IAH 14:28 → MSP 17:06UA 1818	7h 21m	96%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SNA 08:05 → SEA 10:55AS 702	56m Seattle	SEA 11:51 → MSP 17:19AS 509	7h 14m	68%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON