Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 587 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 587 SNA 06:45 → ORD 13:09 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 3151 SNA 15:12 → ORD 21:40 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 587 United Flight history →	SNA 06:45	ORD 13:09	10%	4%	0.6%	87%
AA 2590 American Flight history →	SNA 07:45	ORD 14:08	16%	5%	0.8%	88%
UA 2426 United Flight history →	SNA 10:37	ORD 16:53	20%	8%	0.6%	79%
AA 2285 American Flight history →	SNA 11:35	ORD 17:52	27%	7%	0.7%	68%
UA 1352 United Flight history →	SNA 14:10	ORD 20:26	29%	8%	0.6%	68%
AA 3151 American	SNA 15:12	ORD 21:40	30%	7%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:09UA 489	1h 16m Denver	DEN 13:25 → ORD 17:05UA 617	6h 20m	95%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON