Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4003 at 07:23 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 4003 SNA 07:23 → PHX 08:48 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2454 SNA 12:34 → PHX 14:06 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4003 Southwest	SNA 07:23	PHX 08:48	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 628 American Flight history →	SNA 06:46	PHX 08:16	11%	4%	0.9%	88%
WN 2185 Southwest	SNA 18:49	PHX 20:11	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 4004 Southwest	SNA 12:13	PHX 13:43	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2360 American	SNA 10:01	PHX 11:26	17%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 4006 Southwest	SNA 16:38	PHX 18:08	18%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 2283 American	SNA 13:23	PHX 14:55	23%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 2463 American Flight history →	SNA 16:26	PHX 18:01	29%	8%	0.7%	77%
AA 2454 American Flight history →	SNA 12:34	PHX 14:06	30%	8%	0.7%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON