Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AS 1325 at 06:47 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–32%.

Safest bet that day AS 1325 SNA 06:47 → SEA 09:42 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 1339 SNA 18:05 → SEA 20:23 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 1325 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 06:47	SEA 09:42	13%	3%	0.9%	94%
DL 1001 Delta	SNA 09:14	SEA 12:22	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 3687 SkyWest	SNA 07:01	SEA 09:52	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 1428 Alaska	SNA 11:01	SEA 13:39	19%	5%	0.8%	no record
AS 702 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 08:05	SEA 10:55	23%	5%	0.9%	92%worse than usual
OO 3694 SkyWest	SNA 11:52	SEA 14:43	23%	7%	0.7%	no record
AS 548 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 12:05	SEA 14:54	24%	5%	0.8%	92%worse than usual
AS 760 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 14:45	SEA 17:32	25%	6%	0.8%	88%worse than usual
AS 773 Alaska	SNA 16:44	SEA 19:26	28%	7%	0.8%	no record
AS 1339 Alaska	SNA 18:05	SEA 20:23	32%	6%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON