Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 653 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 653 SNA 07:15 → SFO 08:43 · 19% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3054 SNA 09:27 → SFO 11:03 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 653 United	SNA 07:15	SFO 08:43	19%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 1320 United	SNA 15:00	SFO 16:43	20%	12%	0.7%	no record
AS 3494 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 16:38	SFO 18:14	21%	10%	0.9%	72%
UA 5351 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 16:12	SFO 17:48	22%	12%	0.9%	67%
AS 736 Alaska	SNA 19:29	SFO 20:51	23%	11%	0.8%	no record
UA 5339 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 19:27	SFO 21:05	23%	12%	1.2%	50%
OO 5616 SkyWest	SNA 09:46	SFO 11:36	23%	12%	0.9%	no record
AS 3492 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 18:03	SFO 19:39	24%	12%	1.0%	62%
UA 2111 United	SNA 18:10	SFO 19:39	26%	14%	0.8%	no record
AS 3251 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 08:08	SFO 09:44	26%	9%	1.0%	93%worse than usual
OO 3039 SkyWest	SNA 12:06	SFO 13:42	27%	11%	1.0%	no record
OO 3055 SkyWest	SNA 14:04	SFO 15:40	30%	14%	1.0%	no record
OO 3054 SkyWest	SNA 09:27	SFO 11:03	36%	14%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON