Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 1–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 761 SNA 06:43 → SJC 08:31 · 1% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3805 SNA 15:48 → SJC 17:21 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 761 Southwest	SNA 06:43	SJC 08:31	1%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 4009 Southwest	SNA 09:28	SJC 11:01	4%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 4014 Southwest	SNA 17:28	SJC 19:01	9%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 4012 Southwest	SNA 13:28	SJC 15:01	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 3805 Southwest	SNA 15:48	SJC 17:21	10%	4%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON