Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 22–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 3467 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 11:48	STS 13:37	22%	6%	1.4%	82%
OO 3053 SkyWest	SNA 12:55	STS 14:40	24%	7%	1.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Rosa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SNA 07:00 → PDX 09:24AS 750	1h 21m Portland	PDX 10:45 → STS 12:26AS 2330 · flown by Horizon	5h 26m	99%	91%
American Details →	SNA 06:46 → PHX 08:16AA 628	2h 09m Phoenix	PHX 10:25 → STS 12:52AA 3757 · flown by Envoy	6h 06m	96%	80%
Alaska Details →	SNA 10:57 → PDX 13:21AS 1405	1h 09m Portland	PDX 14:30 → STS 16:15AS 3483 · flown by SkyWest	5h 18m	91%	75%
Alaska Details →	SNA 14:45 → SEA 17:32AS 760	2h 24m Seattle	SEA 19:56 → STS 21:51AS 504	7h 06m	96%	69%
Alaska Details →	SNA 06:47 → SEA 09:42AS 1325	1h 15m Seattle	SEA 10:57 → STS 12:53AS 1347	6h 06m	95%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON