Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1499 at 05:52 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 1499 SRQ 05:52 → ATL 07:39 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 3115 SRQ 17:34 → ATL 19:44 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1499 Delta Flight history →	SRQ 05:52	ATL 07:39	5%	3%	3.3%	94%
DL 1445 Delta Flight history →	SRQ 06:45	ATL 08:26	7%	2%	3.3%	94%
DL 3196 Delta Flight history →	SRQ 11:00	ATL 12:40	10%	4%	3.3%	92%
DL 3104 Delta Flight history →	SRQ 12:53	ATL 14:35	14%	4%	3.4%	85%
DL 3115 Delta Flight history →	SRQ 17:34	ATL 19:44	19%	8%	4.0%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON