tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 3–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1716 Southwest SRQ 05:58 BNA 06:55 3% 1% 2.1% no record
WN 1456 Southwest SRQ 14:31 BNA 15:43 12% 5% 2.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Sarasota/Bradenton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SRQ 05:52 → ATL 07:39DL 1499 3h 42m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 6h 38m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 06:45 → ATL 08:26DL 1445 1h 31m Atlanta ATL 09:57 → BNA 10:09DL 1155 4h 24m 96% 82%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 06:21 → CLT 08:15AA 2264 2h 25m Charlotte CLT 10:40 → BNA 11:09AA 1295 5h 48m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 11:00 → ATL 12:40DL 3196 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → BNA 15:36DL 3142 5h 36m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 17:34 → ATL 19:44DL 3115 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 22:45 → BNA 22:58DL 3121 6h 24m 99% 73%
UnitedDetails → SRQ 06:00 → EWR 08:53UA 1343 52m Newark EWR 09:45 → BNA 11:01UA 3772 6h 01m 94% 70%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 12:56 → CLT 14:53AA 1452 2h 08m Charlotte CLT 17:01 → BNA 17:33AA 519 5h 37m 97% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SRQ 12:28 → EWR 15:23UA 2612 57m Newark EWR 16:20 → BNA 18:01UA 2454 6h 33m 70% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON