Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2264 at 06:21 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2264 American Flight history →	SRQ 06:21	CLT 08:15	11%	3%	2.7%	92%
AA 1452 American Flight history →	SRQ 12:56	CLT 14:53	23%	5%	2.5%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SRQ 05:52 → ATL 07:39DL 1499	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → CLT 11:26DL 3190	5h 34m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	SRQ 06:45 → ATL 08:26DL 1445	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 12:20 → CLT 13:31DL 2157	6h 46m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	SRQ 17:34 → ATL 19:44DL 3115	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177	6h 24m	99%	78%
United Details →	SRQ 06:00 → EWR 08:53UA 1343	1h 10m Newark	EWR 10:03 → CLT 12:07UA 3504 · flown by Republic	6h 07m	95%	76%
American Details →	SRQ 12:11 → DCA 14:59AA 2584	2h 51m Washington	DCA 17:50 → CLT 19:37AA 2182	7h 26m	96%	71%
American Details →	SRQ 06:22 → MIA 07:24AA 4139 · flown by Envoy	56m Miami	MIA 08:20 → CLT 10:20AA 361	3h 58m	90%	71%
Delta Details →	SRQ 12:53 → ATL 14:35DL 3104	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 17:05 → CLT 18:24DL 3158	5h 31m	98%	71%
Delta Details →	SRQ 11:00 → ATL 12:40DL 3196	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → CLT 16:17DL 3031	5h 17m	97%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON