tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 2584 at 12:11, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2584 American Flight history → SRQ 12:11 DCA 14:59 22% 7% 3.4% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SRQ 05:52 → ATL 07:39DL 1499 2h 01m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380 5h 35m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 06:45 → ATL 08:26DL 1445 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → DCA 12:52DL 1798 6h 07m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 06:21 → CLT 08:15AA 2264 1h 04m Charlotte CLT 09:19 → DCA 10:59AA 3043 4h 38m 89% 77%
UnitedDetails → SRQ 06:00 → EWR 08:53UA 1343 2h 20m Newark EWR 11:13 → DCA 12:27UA 4172 · flown by GoJet 6h 27m 97% 76%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 06:22 → MIA 07:24AA 4139 · flown by Envoy 2h 36m Miami MIA 10:00 → DCA 12:49AA 1612 6h 27m 93% 75%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 17:34 → ATL 19:44DL 3115 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537 6h 18m 97% 75%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 12:53 → ATL 14:35DL 3104 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 17:55 → DCA 19:48DL 832 6h 55m 98% 74%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 14:46 → LGA 17:41DL 2412 1h 29m New York LGA 19:10 → DCA 21:01DL 5724 · flown by Republic 6h 15m 91% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON