Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, MQ 4072 at 17:21, with a 27% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


MQ 4072 Envoy	SRQ 17:21	DFW 19:13	27%	9%	5.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Sarasota/Bradenton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SRQ 05:52 → ATL 07:39DL 1499	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 08:50 → DFW 10:08DL 961	5h 16m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	SRQ 06:45 → ATL 08:26DL 1445	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → DFW 12:37DL 414	6h 52m	98%	77%
American Details →	SRQ 06:21 → CLT 08:15AA 2264	3h 02m Charlotte	CLT 11:17 → DFW 13:02AA 2747	7h 41m	96%	72%
American Details →	SRQ 06:22 → MIA 07:24AA 4139 · flown by Envoy	2h 09m Miami	MIA 09:33 → DFW 11:40AA 893	6h 18m	93%	72%
Delta Details →	SRQ 11:00 → ATL 12:40DL 3196	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 16:13 → DFW 17:32DL 374	7h 32m	98%	70%
Delta Details →	SRQ 12:53 → ATL 14:35DL 3104	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 17:37 → DFW 18:57DL 1827	7h 04m	98%	68%
American Details →	SRQ 12:11 → DCA 14:59AA 2584	2h 12m Washington	DCA 17:11 → DFW 19:41AA 1414	8h 30m	93%	67%
Delta Details →	SRQ 17:34 → ATL 19:44DL 3115	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → DFW 23:59DL 818	7h 25m	98%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON