Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1343 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1343 United Flight history →	SRQ 06:00	EWR 08:53	6%	3%	3.5%	94%
UA 2612 United Flight history →	SRQ 12:28	EWR 15:23	27%	10%	3.5%	83%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SRQ 05:52 → ATL 07:39DL 1499	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401	6h 29m	98%	79%
American Details →	SRQ 06:21 → CLT 08:15AA 2264	2h 33m Charlotte	CLT 10:48 → EWR 12:45AA 1697	6h 24m	96%	75%
American Details →	SRQ 06:22 → MIA 07:24AA 4139 · flown by Envoy	1h 08m Miami	MIA 08:32 → EWR 11:35AA 1801	5h 13m	90%	73%
Delta Details →	SRQ 06:45 → ATL 08:26DL 1445	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312	7h 31m	99%	71%
Delta Details →	SRQ 12:53 → ATL 14:35DL 3104	4h 00m Atlanta	ATL 18:35 → EWR 20:54DL 2498	8h 01m	99%	64%
Delta Details →	SRQ 17:34 → ATL 19:44DL 3115	1h 51m Atlanta	ATL 21:35 → EWR 23:46DL 2527	6h 12m	95%	63%
Delta Details →	SRQ 11:00 → ATL 12:40DL 3196	2h 53m Atlanta	ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:54DL 2340	6h 54m	97%	60%
American Details →	SRQ 12:56 → CLT 14:53AA 1452	3h 55m Charlotte	CLT 18:48 → EWR 20:52AA 997	7h 56m	100%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON