Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 6175 at 17:19, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 6175 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	SRQ 17:19	IAH 19:17	20%	12%	3.0%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Sarasota/Bradenton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SRQ 05:52 → ATL 07:39DL 1499	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 10:02 → IAH 11:11DL 1682	6h 19m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	SRQ 17:34 → ATL 19:44DL 3115	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601	7h 23m	99%	74%
United Details →	SRQ 06:00 → EWR 08:53UA 1343	1h 58m Newark	EWR 10:51 → IAH 13:36UA 556	8h 36m	96%	73%
Delta Details →	SRQ 11:00 → ATL 12:40DL 3196	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 15:26 → IAH 16:39DL 1223	6h 39m	97%	73%
American Details →	SRQ 12:56 → CLT 14:53AA 1452	3h 48m Charlotte	CLT 18:41 → IAH 20:33AA 2935	8h 37m	100%	69%
United Details →	SRQ 12:28 → EWR 15:23UA 2612	2h 31m Newark	EWR 17:54 → IAH 20:55UA 2782	9h 27m	94%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON