tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 2412 at 14:46, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2412 Delta Flight history → SRQ 14:46 LGA 17:41 24% 11% 4.4% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SRQ 05:52 → ATL 07:39DL 1499 2h 51m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371 6h 50m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 12:53 → ATL 14:35DL 3104 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 17:00 → LGA 19:27DL 997 6h 34m 98% 74%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 06:22 → MIA 07:24AA 4139 · flown by Envoy 1h 44m Miami MIA 09:08 → LGA 12:09AA 605 5h 47m 93% 74%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 06:21 → CLT 08:15AA 2264 1h 05m Charlotte CLT 09:20 → LGA 11:15AA 1150 4h 54m 89% 71%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 11:00 → ATL 12:40DL 3196 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 15:30 → LGA 17:54DL 433 6h 54m 97% 71%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 17:34 → ATL 19:44DL 3115 1h 16m Atlanta ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520 5h 50m 87% 69%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 12:56 → CLT 14:53AA 1452 3h 07m Charlotte CLT 18:00 → LGA 20:00AA 1060 7h 04m 100% 61%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SRQ 12:56 → CLT 14:53AA 1452 49m Charlotte CLT 15:42 → LGA 17:37AA 1942 4h 41m 67% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON